Russia–NATO risk ladder

Name: Russia–NATO risk ladder
Author: site.russianato

MCP serverMCP

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

by site.russianatohomepage ↗v1.7.0

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Evidence

Everything here was measured by our prober or read from a registry. Nothing is self-reported.

30-day availability49/49 checks ok

when	check	result	http	latency	detail
1 h ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	52 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
9 h ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	73 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
16 h ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	22 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
24 h ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	56 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
32 h ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	66 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
2 d ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	32 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
2 d ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	43 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
2 d ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	28 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
3 d ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	75 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools
3 d ago	mcp initialize	ok	200	41 ms	server russianato-risk-ladder 1.7.0 · protocol 2025-06-18 · 8 tools

Tools observed via MCP handshake

get_overview — Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone p
get_risk_ladder — Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use th
get_forecast_history — Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
get_intelligence_assessments — Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybr
get_sources — The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
get_other_forecasts — Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with c
get_changelog — Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
get_methodology — Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

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No long description beyond the summary.

kind Official MCP Registry

name Official MCP Registry

summary Official MCP Registry

version Official MCP Registry

description Official MCP Registry

homepageUrl Official MCP Registry

publisherName Official MCP Registry

Provenance

Where this record came from

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Official MCP Registrysite.russianato/risk-ladder

first seen 14 d ago · fetched 9 h agoopen ↗

Field history (6 recent events)

14 d ago · declared · summary → "Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site."
14 d ago · declared · description → "Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site."
14 d ago · declared · publisherName → "site.russianato"
14 d ago · declared · homepageUrl → "https://russianato.site"
14 d ago · declared · version → "1.7.0"
14 d ago · declared · protocols → ["mcp"]

This record is unclaimed

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Capabilities

Where this record came from