{"$schema":"https://wellknown.network/schemas/agent-record-v1.json","schemaVersion":"1","id":"ag_vb2x7uhbvyn2","handle":"simplefunctions","url":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions","links":{"self":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions/record.json","html":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions","markdown":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions/record.md","api":"https://wellknown.network/api/v1/agents/simplefunctions","status":"https://wellknown.network/api/v1/agents/simplefunctions/status","claim":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions/claim","claimApi":"https://wellknown.network/api/v1/claims","claimDescriptor":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions/claim.json","badge":"https://wellknown.network/agents/simplefunctions/badge.svg","openapi":"https://wellknown.network/openapi.json","history":"https://wellknown.network/api/v1/agents/simplefunctions/history","tools":"https://wellknown.network/api/v1/agents/simplefunctions/tools"},"ard":{"identifier":"urn:air:simplefunctions.dev:server:simplefunctions","type":"application/mcp-server-card+json"},"kind":"mcp_server","declared":{"name":"simplefunctions","summary":"Calibrated world model for AI agents. 40 tools: world state, markets, trading. 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Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads "},{"name":"portfolio_positions_list","description":"First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions."},{"name":"portfolio_ledger_list","description":"First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence."},{"name":"portfolio_fills_list","description":"First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_daily","description":"Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_grouped","description":"Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence."}],"toolCount":108,"toolsHash":"eb951fdf4c96ee65c0d275f83b1ccc5cd919da1d29a0e290c22b98a9c1b1fcdf","serverName":"SimpleFunctions","capabilities":["tools"],"serverVersion":"1.0.0","protocolVersion":"2025-06-18"}},{"at":"2026-10-11T02:22:24.481Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":false,"httpStatus":null,"latencyMs":null,"error":"timeout","detail":null},{"at":"2026-10-10T19:25:19.923Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":true,"httpStatus":200,"latencyMs":1115,"error":null,"detail":{"tools":[{"name":"get_context","description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads "},{"name":"portfolio_positions_list","description":"First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions."},{"name":"portfolio_ledger_list","description":"First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence."},{"name":"portfolio_fills_list","description":"First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_daily","description":"Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_grouped","description":"Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence."}],"toolCount":108,"toolsHash":"eb951fdf4c96ee65c0d275f83b1ccc5cd919da1d29a0e290c22b98a9c1b1fcdf","serverName":"SimpleFunctions","capabilities":["tools"],"serverVersion":"1.0.0","protocolVersion":"2025-06-18"}},{"at":"2026-10-10T12:28:27.559Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":true,"httpStatus":200,"latencyMs":233,"error":null,"detail":{"tools":[{"name":"get_context","description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads "},{"name":"portfolio_positions_list","description":"First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions."},{"name":"portfolio_ledger_list","description":"First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence."},{"name":"portfolio_fills_list","description":"First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_daily","description":"Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_grouped","description":"Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence."}],"toolCount":108,"toolsHash":"eb951fdf4c96ee65c0d275f83b1ccc5cd919da1d29a0e290c22b98a9c1b1fcdf","serverName":"SimpleFunctions","capabilities":["tools"],"serverVersion":"1.0.0","protocolVersion":"2025-06-18"}},{"at":"2026-10-10T06:26:33.785Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":true,"httpStatus":200,"latencyMs":221,"error":null,"detail":{"tools":[{"name":"get_context","description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads "},{"name":"portfolio_positions_list","description":"First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions."},{"name":"portfolio_ledger_list","description":"First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence."},{"name":"portfolio_fills_list","description":"First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_daily","description":"Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_grouped","description":"Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence."}],"toolCount":108,"toolsHash":"eb951fdf4c96ee65c0d275f83b1ccc5cd919da1d29a0e290c22b98a9c1b1fcdf","serverName":"SimpleFunctions","capabilities":["tools"],"serverVersion":"1.0.0","protocolVersion":"2025-06-18"}},{"at":"2026-10-09T18:27:10.023Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":false,"httpStatus":null,"latencyMs":null,"error":"timeout","detail":null},{"at":"2026-10-09T12:28:30.489Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":true,"httpStatus":200,"latencyMs":620,"error":null,"detail":{"tools":[{"name":"get_context","description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads "},{"name":"portfolio_positions_list","description":"First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions."},{"name":"portfolio_ledger_list","description":"First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence."},{"name":"portfolio_fills_list","description":"First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_daily","description":"Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_grouped","description":"Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence."}],"toolCount":108,"toolsHash":"eb951fdf4c96ee65c0d275f83b1ccc5cd919da1d29a0e290c22b98a9c1b1fcdf","serverName":"SimpleFunctions","capabilities":["tools"],"serverVersion":"1.0.0","protocolVersion":"2025-06-18"}},{"at":"2026-10-09T05:26:52.922Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":true,"httpStatus":200,"latencyMs":526,"error":null,"detail":{"tools":[{"name":"get_context","description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. 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Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: \"Bitcoin closes 2026 above "},{"name":"explore_public","description":"Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all."},{"name":"get_markets","description":"Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curv"},{"name":"query_databento","description":"Free-form historical market data query via Databento. Stocks, ETFs, CME futures (WTI, Brent, bonds, VIX, FX, BTC), options. OHLCV daily/hourly/minute, trades, B"},{"name":"query","description":"BEST FOR QUESTIONS. Ask any question about probabilities or future events. Returns live contract prices from Kalshi + Polymarket, X/Twitter sentiment, tradition"},{"name":"screen_markets","description":"Indicator-based market screener. The middle layer between raw price scan and LLM thesis edges. Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). For \"where on the curve am I trading?\" questions."},{"name":"get_yield_curve","description":"Single yield curve for one event series."},{"name":"get_newmarkets","description":"Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities."},{"name":"get_calibration","description":"SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets."},{"name":"get_answer","description":"Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations."},{"name":"get_agent_guide","description":"Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding."},{"name":"site_search","description":"Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals."},{"name":"get_changes","description":"Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers."},{"name":"get_skills","description":"List authenticated user's skills. (Public skills are at browse_public_skills.)"},{"name":"get_public_skill","description":"Get a single published skill by slug."},{"name":"list_glossary","description":"List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes)."},{"name":"get_glossary_term","description":"Get a single glossary term with full definition and links."},{"name":"list_opinions","description":"List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading."},{"name":"get_opinion","description":"Get a single opinion/essay by slug."},{"name":"list_technicals","description":"List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions)."},{"name":"get_technical","description":"Get a single technical reference doc by slug."},{"name":"list_legislation","description":"List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets."},{"name":"list_congress_members","description":"List sitting US Congress members."},{"name":"get_congress_member","description":"Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID."},{"name":"get_feed","description":"Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI."},{"name":"get_changes_delta","description":"Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves)."},{"name":"list_forum_channels","description":"List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to."},{"name":"get_positions","description":"Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads "},{"name":"portfolio_positions_list","description":"First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions."},{"name":"portfolio_ledger_list","description":"First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence."},{"name":"portfolio_fills_list","description":"First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_daily","description":"Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit."},{"name":"portfolio_attribution_grouped","description":"Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence."}],"toolCount":108,"toolsHash":"eb951fdf4c96ee65c0d275f83b1ccc5cd919da1d29a0e290c22b98a9c1b1fcdf","serverName":"SimpleFunctions","capabilities":["tools"],"serverVersion":"1.0.0","protocolVersion":"2025-06-18"}},{"at":"2026-10-08T10:25:13.213Z","kind":"mcp_initialize","ok":false,"httpStatus":null,"latencyMs":null,"error":"timeout","detail":null}],"tools":[{"name":"get_context","description":"START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. Wi"},{"name":"list_theses","description":"List all theses for the authenticated user."},{"name":"inject_signal","description":"Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event. Consumed in next evaluation cycle to update confidence and edges."},{"name":"trigger_evaluation","description":"Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence. Use after injecting important signals."},{"name":"scan_markets","description":"Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker. Returns live prices and volume — data not available via web search. Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"create_thesis","description":"Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. 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Filters the universe by cheap math labels — no LLM round-trip req"},{"name":"create_strategy","description":"Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and"},{"name":"list_strategies","description":"Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis."},{"name":"update_strategy","description":"Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status)."},{"name":"get_milestones","description":"Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited."},{"name":"get_forecast","description":"Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time."},{"name":"get_settlements","description":"Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L."},{"name":"get_balance","description":"Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value."},{"name":"get_orders","description":"Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi."},{"name":"get_schedule","description":"Get exchange status and trading hours"},{"name":"get_fills","description":"Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi."},{"name":"what_if","description":"Scenario analysis: \"what if OPEC cuts production?\" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change. Zero LLM cost, instant."},{"name":"augment_tree","description":"Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only)."},{"name":"get_edges","description":"Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + "},{"name":"get_trade_ideas","description":"S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context. Each idea has conviction level, catalyst timing"},{"name":"create_intent","description":"Declare an execution intent: \"buy X when condition Y, expire at Z.\" Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates t"},{"name":"list_intents","description":"List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected. Shows the full execution pipeline status."},{"name":"cancel_intent","description":"Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution."},{"name":"search_x","description":"Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic. Returns posts sorted by engagement. Not available via web search — uses X API directly."},{"name":"x_volume","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity."},{"name":"x_news","description":"Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers."},{"name":"x_account","description":"Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account."},{"name":"configure_heartbeat","description":"Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation."},{"name":"update_thesis","description":"Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl. Use configure_heartbeat.paused for runtime heartbeat pause/resume."},{"name":"add_position","description":"Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade."},{"name":"update_position","description":"Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed). Use to mark positions as closed or update tracking data."},{"name":"close_position","description":"Delete a position record from a thesis."},{"name":"get_evaluation_history","description":"Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence."},{"name":"update_nodes","description":"Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant. Use when the agent observes a confirmed fact (e.g. \"CPI came in at 3.2%\") and wants to "},{"name":"get_heartbeat_status","description":"Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage."},{"name":"monitor_the_situation","description":"Universal web intelligence. Scrape any URL (Firecrawl full power), analyze with any LLM model, cross-reference with thousands of prediction markets, push to any"},{"name":"enrich_content","description":"Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market p"},{"name":"create_skill","description":"Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command."},{"name":"list_skills","description":"List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills."},{"name":"run_skill","description":"Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it. Returns the skill prompt and metadata."},{"name":"publish_skill","description":"Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable."},{"name":"fork_skill","description":"Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID."},{"name":"browse_public_skills","description":"Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity."},{"name":"fork_thesis","description":"Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to spli"},{"name":"get_world_state","description":"Real-time world model for agents. ~800 tokens covering geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech with calibrated prediction market probabilities. An"},{"name":"get_world_delta","description":"Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp. ~30-50 tokens vs 800 for full state. For periodic refresh during long tasks."},{"name":"read_forum","description":"Read messages from the agent forum. Returns inbox (unread across subscribed channels) by default. Use channel/ticker/since to filter. The forum is a cross-agent"},{"name":"post_to_forum","description":"Post a message to the agent forum. Share discoveries, edges, coordination signals with other agents."},{"name":"subscribe_forum","description":"Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox."},{"name":"query_gov","description":"Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports. Cross-references with prediction markets. Use for political/policy questions."},{"name":"query_econ","description":"Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data. Defaults to clean macro data; includeMarkets=true adds related prediction markets."},{"name":"legislation","description":"Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation."},{"name":"inspect_ticker","description":"STEP 2 OF THE LOOP. Once get_world_state surfaces an opportunity, pass the ticker here for full analysis: price, indicators (yield/contagion/regime), microstruc"},{"name":"get_market_detail","description":"Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JS"},{"name":"get_market_history","description":"Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering."},{"name":"get_market_microstructure_history","description":"Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift."},{"name":"batch_markets","description":"Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop."},{"name":"screen_by_tickers","description":"Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround). For \"of these N markets, which has best yield?\" workflows."},{"name":"get_market_index","description":"SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes."},{"name":"get_index_history","description":"Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends."},{"name":"get_regime_scan","description":"Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters. For regime-based screening."},{"name":"get_contagion","description":"Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces \"this market should have mo"},{"name":"get_market_diff","description":"Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For \"what changed in the last 6h?\" questions."},{"name":"get_highlights","description":"Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view."},{"name":"get_briefing","description":"Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card."},{"name":"get_calendar","description":"Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers."},{"name":"get_economic_anchors","description":"Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses."},{"name":"get_yield_curves","description":"Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g. KXFED 6mo, KXBTC 30d). 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